JIM ROGERS BLOG: 05/07/11

Saturday, May 7, 2011

The bull market for commodities is not yet over

Jim Rogers : "Markets have corrections all the time and I do not find anything unusual. The bull market for commodities is not yet over," - in The Jakarta Globe

ETFs : Ishares Silver ETF (SLV), SPDR GOld ETF (GLD) iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (NYSE:CAF), PowerShares Gld Drg Haltr USX China(ETF) (NYSE:PGJ) iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (FXI) China Mobile Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:CHL), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (ADR) (NYSE:SNP), China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:LFC), PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) (NYSE:PTR), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (NYSE:CAF), Aluminum Corp. of China Limited (ADR) (Public, NYSE:ACH)

5% correction in gold is meaningless - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers : Again, I have absolutely no idea. 5% correction in gold is meaningless. These things correct 10-15-20-30% every year. Nothing unusual about that. That is the way the markets work. I do not see anything unusual. I expect there would be more correction during the course of the bull market. I hope that the bull market goes up, consolidates, goes up, consolidates, goes up and consolidates for years to come. That is my expectation for all commodities.
- in ET Now

Jim Rogers: Only Short Sighted People are Exiting Commodities

Jim Rogers : I have not sold any commodity. I own all my commodities. We are in a flexible bull market. I hope I am smart enough in the entire 15 years to realize when the commodity bull market is finally coming to an end, I am probably smart enough to sell. This commodity bull market will probably end in a bubble. Most bull markets and most sectors, whether it is stocks, real estate, whatever it happens to me, lands in a bubble. We are far-far-far from a bubble so far.
in ET Now

If China collapses I hope I’m smart enough to buy more Chinese shares

“If China (NYSE:FXI) collapses and the stock market has a big drop, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more Chinese shares. My approach to China is that my children are going to own my Chinese shares some day. I don’t do this in any other country. Only China (NYSE:FXI). I hope one day my grandchildren are gonna say that the old man was really smart … wherever he is, thank you.”

My children are going to own my Chinese shares

“I only like to buy China when it collapses and it hasn’t collapsed in nearly two years. My children are going to own my Chinese shares. I’m not planning to sell my Chinese shares ever.” - in CNBC

America pouring gasoline over the fire

“But with U.S. pouring gasoline over the fire, it’s going to be much more difficult for anybody to stop inflation. America is fanning it as best as it can, and it’s going to get worse.” - in www.myloansconsolidated.com

The China prosperity continues

“The China (NYSE:FXI) boom continues. The China prosperity continues. I notice it spreading. The property boom continues to spread. I see that more and more. But of course, there are those who think that it’s a property bubble, including me – at least I think there is a property bubble in coastal cities. The government is trying to pop that bubble as you know and I presume that they (will) pop the bubble. The Chinese government has enough authority and control that they can pop something if they really mean it. We’ll see.” - in Forbes Blog

We have inflation now

“We have inflation now. If you go to the shop, whether it’s groceries (NYSE:RJA), or education or insurance (NYSE:KIE) or health care (NYSE:XLV), prices are going up for everything. The government lies about it in the US.” - in MWC News

people are going to realise it’s absurd to lend money to the United States government for 30 years

“If the bond (NYSE:TLT) goes up another 3 or 4 points, I for one am going to sell it short. I just think at some point along the line, people are going to realise it’s absurd to lend money to the United States government for 30 years in U.S. dollars at 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 percent interest. I mean the market is just going to give up. Once the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds (NYSE:TBT) I’m not sure who’s left to buy bonds at that point.” - in Reuters Insider

Most investors don’t notice something until there is already a nice bull market

“What has gotten people’s attention is that gold (NYSE:GLD) has been going up and up. That is the wrong way to invest. I own gold and silver (NYSE:SLV), but it was five and ten years ago that they should have been buying gold and silver. Most investors don’t notice something until there is already a nice bull market underway. There will be more people buying gold, eventually everyone will own gold and then we will have to sell our gold. But that is a long way from now.” - in GuruFocus.com

its better for China to open its currency market

Jim Rogers “I think it’s better for China (NYSE:FXI) to open its currency market as soon as possible. This is not 1981; this is 2011. China is a strong and independent country now, and they don’t have to worry about the currency. It would be good for China and the 1.3 billion Chinese. Everything China imports will go down in price. You have to have a convertible currency to have a strong international economy.” - in China Digital

China should do like Singapore to fight Inflation

Jim Rogers : Here in Singapore, they’ve allowed their currency rise to mitigate inflation. I expect the Chinese will eventually have to do the same thing.

You’re better off cutting growth in advance, than allowing inflation to get out of control. If growth drops to 3%, who cares? That’s better than letting inflation get out of control, because once it does, it’s very tough to rein in.

Then you have to incur a recession or worse to control inflation. - in www.minyanville.com

America is debasing its currency

Jim Rogers : Nobody has ever been better off for debasing your currency and America is doing a terribly wrong thing. Britain debased its currency for decades and it didn’t help.

I as an investor would be even more bullish on the euro if the central bank takes action. - in CNBC

Throwing money down the rat hole does not work

Jim Rogers : we should have let the Americans that are bankrupt to go bankrupt propping up failed assets has never worked for any long period of time , what America should have done let the people go bankrupt let other competent people come in take over the assets reorganize and start over , what America is doing is they are going to the competent people taking their money giving it to the incompetent people and saying to the incompetent people now you compete with the competent people with their money !!! I mean it's horrible morality , not that politicians care about morality but it's terrible economics it just does not work ...throwing money down the rat hole does not work , throwing good money after bad does not work "...

the world is going deeper into debt

Jim Rogers : it's getting worse ( the current state of the economy) it looks like it is getting better many governments are spending a lot of money and printing a lot of money and the people who receive that money are better off obviously but the overall situation is getting worse the world is going deeper into debt and we are building up more problems the next time that there is an economic slow down things are going to be much worse than they were last time , to me it's inconceivable that you can solve a problem of too much debt and too much consumption with more debt and more consumption and yet that's what the politicians are trying to do , "

ETFs : Ishares Silver ETF (SLV), SPDR GOld ETF (GLD) iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (NYSE:CAF), PowerShares Gld Drg Haltr USX China(ETF) (NYSE:PGJ) iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (FXI) China Mobile Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:CHL), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (ADR) (NYSE:SNP), China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:LFC), PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) (NYSE:PTR), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (NYSE:CAF), Aluminum Corp. of China Limited (ADR) (Public, NYSE:ACH)

Markets volatility

Jim Rogers " When markets become highly volatile, and we can see the market anticipates further volatility, then it is highly likely that we will change the amount we require ... The exchange increases margins to manage the risk people face."
in BusinessWeek

Markets are always correcting

" I’m very happy it’s coming down nicely. I hope it comes down some more so I can buy some more. Markets are always correcting."

long liquidation and profit taking in Silver market

Jim Rogers " At this point, I see some serious long liquidation and profit taking, but not an end to the historic 2011 rally."
in BusinessWeek

Silver is a freight train

" Silver is a freight train ... The market doesn’t change, doesn’t give up. It’s relentless, and you’re just going to get rolled over."
in BusinessWeek

Ben Bernanke & the printing presses

Jim Rogers : All he said was that he didn’t know much about anything. When he was asked about currency movements I nearly fell off my chair.

What does he know about? He doesn’t know about currency movements, he doesn’t know about anything but he does know about printing money, he built his entire intellectual career around printing money and the government has given him control of the printing presses.

the US would need four or five North Sea oil fields

Jim Rogers : Around 1918, the UK went into decline. By the mid 1970’s, it was bankrupt. Starting in 1979, it experienced a bounce-back rally of sorts – thanks to their oil fields in the North Sea. Most people give Maggie Thatcher credit for their comeback, but the real white knight for the UK was the North Sea oil discovery,” he said.

You give me the largest oil field in the world, and I’ll show you a good time too. But the US would need four or five North Sea oil fields to save the current situation...because the Federal debt is unpayable. - in www.minyanville.com

Silver & The 1987 Stock Market Crash

Jim Rogers : In 1987 stocks went down 30 to 40 percent, smart people went in a bought more. If it goes down I hope I’m smart enough to buy move silver. - in CNBC

The UK will need a bailout soon

Jim Rogers : They (the government) are not doing it. They are saying they are doing it but they are not. They are saving 1 billion pounds here or there but they are not doing what they really need to and I’m not sure the government would survive the kind of pain that is really required.

How can the UK ever repay the debt that is continually rising? The UK will need a bailout soon.

You have the advantage that your debt is longer term but let’s assume the government keep to these austerity plans or really put them in place people will start to complain...The government will begin to lose by-elections and the government could fall, then what? - in CNBC