Monday, March 28, 2011

The Dynamics Of A Bull Market

I’ve been trying to explain to people for a long time what’s going on, but for some reason nobody listens.

Normally at this stage of the commodity bull market you would expect new capacity to be coming on stream. The problem of course is that in 2008 and 2009 everybody got hit. So, many of the people who were thinking about adding capacity have pulled back, cancelled, delayed, rescheduled, etc. Fortunately or unfortunately, the supply side of the equation seems to be getting worse not better.

Previous bull markets in commodities have lasted 15 or 20 years. This one’s going to last at least that long if not longer.