Wednesday, November 23, 2011

There has been massive under-investment in productive capacity

Jim Rogers : There has been massive under-investment in things like mining,oil exploration, and agricultural development. Agricultural land is left fallow. Plantations give way to real estate development.Renewing commodity infrastructure, finding new sources of commodities, new oil fields, developing new plantations takes lots of time … years in many cases. Only one new lead mine opened in the world in twenty-five years!Technological changes are coming, of course. But it just takes along, long time. We don’t reverse these things quickly. Almost every oil country in the world has got declining reserves. All the major oil companies are quite open about the fact that they are not replacing their reserves, not by discoveries anyway or development. Maybe they’re buying other oil companies. But that’s not increasing the amount of oil in the world. There’s going to be something to cause this bull market to come to an end, someday, but the emphasis should be on someday, because someday is a long way, away.