Jim Rogers graduated from Yale University and has a degree in philosophy, politics and economics from Oxford University. Jimmy Rogers became a Wall street legend when he and George Soros founded the Quantum Fund.After his career as a hedge fund manager and investor,Jim Rogers now periodically teaches finance at Columbia University, and appears regularly on the CNBC Cable Network.
Monday, June 15, 2020
The Coming Pension Crisis will make the Pandemic look like a Party !!
The Coming Pension Crisis will make the Pandemic look like a Party !!
The US pension plans warned they would run out of money by 2028. At the moment, a number of US public pension plans have barely recovered - if at all from the 2008 financial crisis - now to be hit with the continuing economic fallout from the corona-crisis and domino effect of historic unemployment. An alarming report in the Financial Times warns that seven major public pension plans are due to depleting their assets by 2028. The retirement crisis will make the pandemic look like a party. So many, for whatever reason, have no savings at all. They will vote to be helped. The Medicare trust fund will run dry as early as 2023. Payroll taxes and premiums will go up, while benefits will go down, or some combination of that. Social Security will use up the trust fund by 2034. The national debt is projected to be 50 trillion by 2030. We'll have to print more money, meaning inflation. No politician has even pretended to address these hot potatoes. I'm not saying it will all play out this way, but it is undeniable we will have many, many, many millions of seniors that will not be able to provide for themselves. Almost a third of Americans say they may never retire because of coronavirus hardships. This country is in for a bigger crisis, with so many Americans having zero savings and getting older. The Social Security issue MUST be dealt with NOW too. It's due to run dry soon. The Covid-19 pandemic has crippled economies all around the world. From healthcare disasters to black swan financial events, it has been quite some time since the future has seemed so bleak. The politicization of the virus is the problem. And all meant to destroy the economy. According to a story originally published by CNBC, this widespread financial strife has caused more than one in four Americans to raid their retirement savings. "40% of Americans Have Less than $1k" and "75% of Boomers Have Less than $10K for Retirement" and "Boomers STILL Carry More Debt than Investment and Savings. Only about 10% of the working population has ANY savings to speak of. This is the only generation less prepared for retirement than they were even two years ago. A 2018 study by Northwestern Mutual reported about 1/3 of people nearing retirement had less than $5,000 saved for retirement. As a society, we are not generally well prepared for old age or retirement. Yes, some people grew up with smart money parents, others did not, so we had to learn on our own. Teaching money management and financial investing, a good budget, etc. is absolutely necessary. These are survival skills that an educated society should provide their citizens....don't leave it up to chance or we will pay the consequence. ALL Americans will retire. It just depends if it fits on your terms or not. At a certain point, after being let go and unable to find another job, you are retired. If you're self-employed, you can work as you want. Some folks go till they drop. If the pandemic accelerates, "retirement " will come with an oblong box or cremation. You may plan to never retire, but believe me, you will for one reason or another. Start saving money, cut the cable bill, the telephone bill, the vacations. Don't buy an expensive car. Believe me, you will retire someday due to health issues or just because your employer wants a worker who is younger, healthier, and will accept less money than you. A lot of people will likely be forced to retire. A lot of jobs will not come back, and when they do, you can bet older workers will be the last hired. Corporate America has no need for you past age 60. Many of the 55 - 60 years old are being forced into retirement early because of the virus. They have been laid off with no chance of being rehired. They don't show up on the unemployment numbers, but they are here. The unemployment figures are false and much worse than indicated. By 50 years old, you should be prepared for retirement. I can't believe how many people think they can start saving for retirement "later." "Later" is promised to no one, stupid not to start immediately. Besides, wealth is a function of time and money, more time, less money, less time, much more money (contributions). Time marches relentlessly on, it can either be your friend or your worst enemy. I know many folks 50 and up that were laid off during the great recession, never to have found a decent paying job again, and the same is going to happen again now. Then you've got a significant chance of becoming disabled due to illness or injury. Maybe your body just gives out you can no longer do your physical job any longer. If you've waited, it's too late now. If you want to talk presumptuous, it's assuming you can save "later." THE PROBLEM IS NOT THE VIRUS BUT MONEY MANAGEMENT. IF ONE IS NOT TAUGHT AS A CHILD TO RESPECT MONEY, THEY WILL BE AND STAY POOR. If one event can ruin your retirement, then you didn't plan very well to begin with. The simple truth is 45 years is either a lot of years of good decision making or a lot of years of poor decision making. There's going to be a huge spread between the 65+ haves and have nots. It seems each new generation becomes lazier than the previous one. They want more entitlements, but they're less productive. The newest working people, those just graduating from college, got a good lesson of what living paycheck-to-paycheck will do. Hopefully, they will understand not having a subscription or two, having the newest smartphone to order your coffee and leasing the BMW isn't so important if you have zero savings of some kind. If you are working and unable to save at the very least 10% of your pay, then you are spending too much. Or you're not making enough. Saving is not a hard concept. Savings takes self-discipline. The key was (still is) don't spend a lot of money on depreciating assets like cars and clothes. You gotta live within your means and save for the rough times. People were crying the second week out of work with no paycheck. These people are obviously doing something wrong! If 2-3 months laid off, and possibly making more in unemployment/stimulus money has ruined your retirement, you were already a financial wreck before coronavirus. Simple rules: 1) Live below your means - not just within your means. 2) Purchase items used if possible, such as a car. I only purchase used cars and keep them for 5-7 years. I do purchase new cell phones, but I keep those around three years on average. 3) Have at least three months of emergency funds. More is better, but three should be the minimum. 4) Invest early and often. 5) As you get older - and closer to retirement - slowly switch a percentage (40-60% depending upon your specific circumstances) to more secure investments. 6) Take on as little debt as possible. I do not know what my credit card rates are as I always treat them like cash and pay them in full each month. I only take on debt if it makes sense financially. Regardless of your income, it is possible to prepare for emergencies and invest in retirement. It simply requires discipline to do so. Should have had some emergency savings in place to sustain you for a few months WHEN the economy goes south. If you're holding a nice smartphone, drive a nice car, and live in a house you couldn't afford, then you only have yourself to blame for having to work until you drop dead. Live within your means, plan for the future, and don't count on somebody else to come along and support you, because they (probably) won't. If you are having trouble making ends meet, here are a few tips. -Cancel unnecessary subscriptions, cable TV, Netflix, prime, etc... -Shop around to save on monthly services like insurance, phone, internet, etc... -Buy second-hand items whenever possible: cars, furniture, clothing, cell phones, etc... -Buy the lowest-cost, smallest house that meets your needs (not your wants). -Cut out unnecessary spending on restaurants, coffee shops, etc. Make your own meals, do the brown-bag lunch thing -Don't spend a lot on gifts. Make your gifts. It's lower-cost and more meaningful. -Don't do stupid stuff. -Shop around for a better paying job. Compare total compensation, including wage/salary, 401k contribution, HSA, health insurance. don't include BS benefits like pet insurance, free massages, or other things you don't need. -Don't buy pet insurance or spend a lot at the vet. What this virus has exposed is the lack of an emergency savings account and basic financial planning. And stagnant wage growth for the last decade has not played a role! When a person has no cushion, Covid-19 doesn't make much of a difference. Boomers do have one advantage, though. Our parents grew up during the Great Depression, so the idea of savings was drummed into us during our childhood. It doesn't mean every boomer learned, but many did. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. The pandemic did not create the "retirement crisis," it has been there all along. And the Federal Reserve Bank is not helping millions of retirees being made complete fools of with money in banks and credit unions at around .01 percent interest. They are being robbed by the Fed to pump up Wall Street speculation into the latest balloon. This is not going to end well. If the "Fed" stumbles and falls, which I think that it will, the wealthy will just run away from the Hindenburg Finance Disaster and just create another scheme, probably "digital" this time. Hardly anyone "saves" what the privately-owned Federal Reserve Bank can just create more on in minutes on computers or taking a while longer, printing up debt "notes." Most of us, myself included, will get badly hurt if this grand scheme of paper and computer digits crashes someday. The money given away by the government this year will reduce the value of your retirement savings by 20%; REAL inflation is that huge. The weak financial condition of seven US public pension plans threatens to deplete their assets by 2028, leading to severe risks for the living standards of thousands of American employees and retired workers. Many US public pension plans had not fully recovered from the 2007/08 financial crisis. As many companies work to regain their financial footing in the midst of continuing economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic, a retiring worker’s decision to take either a lump sum or lifetime payments from their pension could boil down to one factor. Whether they think the employer will be able to meet its long-term commitments. There are over 5 trillion dollars in 401k's, and you can bet the government is absolutely salivating over the possibility of taxing it or even confiscating it "for the greater good. Using 401k law to fund retirement has always been perilous. While the current stock market drop is understandable, many market swings seem baseless, and the result of both can and do ruin retirement plans with no fault of the retiree. There should be a law that companies must contribute to a funded retirement plan run by the Federal Government. In most developed countries, something along this line is done, and since all those countries and companies within those countries figure out a way to be competitive, we should be able to figure it out also. Last, the law must include a provision that the Government cannot use the funds for any reason other than to disperse retirement money. People have spent 40-50 years applying themselves. At what point do they deserve to start living? They gave their best years to this country, and in return, it spat in their lap. The elderly should be taken better care of in this country. They spent their entire lives working for corporate America. It's time for Corporate America to pay them the thanks that they deserved. That pitiful living wage during their best years is not enough. A lot of working people don't realize how much of a burden debt is as it's become a way of life. Maybe this pandemic will make us realize that just because we want something, it doesn't mean we have to get it. Freedom from financial stress is what we should aim for. Let's be clear. Not only were Americans not financially prepared for a pandemic, but Corporate America wasn't either. How many businesses, both big and small, are shuttering their doors. Businesses couldn't afford to keep paying employees, rents, etc. any more than the average American could keep paying for their basic expenses either. I hope the finger-pointing and BAD CREDIT judgments get reined in. Being a consumer-oriented society, we have been pushed to the limits to spend. A capitalist nation depends on the consumer to spend and spend more. However, recently, due to the ongoing lack of confidence in our economy, many people have turned to save instead of buying for buying's sake. This has sounded alarms in corporate boardrooms. Their goal is to get spending back on track. Larry Kudlow mentioned that the retail sales numbers would be great for May. But, he failed to include that much of that spending was done with stimulus checks. He also didn't state that credit card spending was also up. People are resorting to Credit Cards instead of cash savings. What happened when the stimulus ends and credit cards get maxed out? The pandemic brought an important lesson home to everyone. It has taught us that anything can and will happen and not always good. You plan a budget, then try to stick to it, set aside some money for emergencies, and prepare for the future. Generation X's have a long time to retirement, so they have time to recover from the downturn in the employment market. It will be slow at first. I think we'll be told one day to thank God our president is saving the economy by issuing new, strong money. We'll be told our non-patriotic old money will not be good after a certain date or after a bank holiday. At that point, if it happens, spend ALL your old money on food. After that, I can't tell you. Good luck! Save money. Money talks during a disaster, including finances. Most people put way too much faith in the stock market. Quick gains also open you to quick losses. Buy gold, Silver. Stay away from this market for now. Just wait for the burning smell of speculators to get a sniff of what is heading our way. Markets are way overvalued and will see a massive fall. There is no justification for stock prices when the entire nation is still suffering from this Virus. It is not going away because Trump says so. We haven't seen anything yet until the fall, which is only 16 weeks away. This virus will haunt us again worse in the fall. The FED response has been almost criminal yet continues to persist. I think we may finally be at the breaking point of this fiscal policy since too many people are using it to speculate on values going up no matter what based on FED support, which has created an enormous bubble that can only be addressed by either reducing support, or a massive collapse. A 2nd wave is guaranteed here in the states. The second wave of virus + Riots = stock market's doom. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Subscribe. Leave me a comment. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Jim Rogers is a bestselling author, financial commentator and successful international investor. Rogers was a co-founder of the Quantum Fund (considered to be the first truly international fund of its kind) and is the creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).